Space Race 2.0: How Commercial Satellites are Redefining National Security & Competition

The space domain is undergoing a radical transformation, driven by the booming commercial satellite industry. What was once the exclusive domain of governments is now increasingly shaped by private companies offering diverse services, from enhanced GPS to advanced surveillance. This shift, while promising greater innovation and cost-effectiveness, also introduces new complexities and security dilemmas. Is this the dawn of a new space race, one built on the backs of commercial ventures?

Commercial satellites are now capable of far more than initially imagined, according to a recent Space Force official. This revelation has spurred the U.S. military to explore alternative procurement models. Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy stated that the Space Force is looking at commercial options to bolster its GPS network, aiming for a price range of $50 million to $80 million per satellite, a significant reduction from the $250 million price tag of current Lockheed Martin-built satellites. These new satellites, although smaller, offer enhanced resilience and better capabilities to punch through jamming signals.

Purdy noted their surprise at the capabilities and lowering prices in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), driving their decision to proceed with the Resilient GPS program. The results have been "more surprising and encouraging than we thought," leading them to consider commercial options for the mainline GPS system.

This move towards commercial integration is not limited to the U.S. China has also recognized the strategic advantages of a robust commercial space sector. Since 2014, China has actively supported and encouraged the growth of its own space companies, focusing on launch capabilities, communications, and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). While questions remain about the true independence of these Chinese companies, their development underscores a growing security dilemma: each nation sees the other’s commercial space advances as a potential threat, fueling a competitive drive for dominance.

The increasing reliance of the US military and others on commercial space creates new vulnerabilities. It's difficult to attribute satellite malfunctions to accidental incidents or attacks in space, and discerning intent behind satellite maneuvers adds to the uncertainty. Wendy N. Whitman Cobb, a Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, argues that this shifts the security dilemma from the military realm to the commercial one.

Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch, Senior Vice President of Government Strategy & Policy at Viasat, emphasizes the need for the DoD and USSF to accelerate the integration of commercial space capabilities. She calls for dedicated leadership, aligned funding, and a shift in mindset from acquiring material solutions to building capabilities with commercial services as foundational.
The philosophy is to exploit what we have, buy what we can, build what we must. This includes a diverse architecture with multiple suppliers, orbits, and frequencies to increase resilience and reduce risk by achieving cost-effective and diverse communications routes.

While this commercial space race may carry some risks it also promises significant benefits. Unlike traditional arms races focused solely on weaponry, the commercial space race fosters innovation in technology, increases economic activity, and produces civilian and scientific benefits. It is important to be reminded that the US (and the West more generally) are arguably in a better place to succeed in such a contest given the capitalist market dynamics that encourage commercial development, a framework that China generally lacks.

The rise of commercial space capabilities is transforming the landscape of national security and altering the playing field of great power competition. Space Force, commercial space, and national security are now inextricably linked. Will this new era of commercial space exploration lead to greater cooperation or escalated competition? How can governments navigate the challenges of leveraging commercial innovation while safeguarding national interests?

Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!

• Commercial Space
• National Security
• Space Force